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لماذا سيتوسع العالم بعد الجائحة؟

لماذا سيتوسع العالم بعد الجائحة؟

Utpal Dholakia Ph.D

Posted Apr 27, 2020

العالم سيكون مختلفا. نحن متجهون لعالم مكتف ذاتيا”. راي داليو.

كل حدث مدمر يسبب مجموعة كبيرة من التغيرات، التي تتكشف عبر العديد من السنوات وربما خلال عقود، وعندما يكون ذلك الحدث مفاجئا وشديدا وواسعا طويل الأجل كما هو ظاهر على وباء كوفيد ١٩ فإن لها القدرة في التسبب بتغييرات هائلة، ومن خلال خبرتنا الشخصية وردة فعلنا الحالية واللاحقة نقول: إن العوامل النفسية سيكون لها الدور الاكبر.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك فإن متغيرات الواقع الاجتماعي والتكنولوجي والسياسي والاقتصادي كلها تندمج مع المتغير النفسي لتشكل التغيير. من هذا المنطلق يمكننا القول: إن الأحداث المدمرة تحفز التغيير وتسرّعه وتدفعه نحو اتجاه واحد، بينما كان هنالك اتجاهات مختلفة ليتوجه إليها، ولكي نفهم هذا ونتنبأ بالتغيير الممكن حدوثه بسبب جائحة كوفيد ١٩ تذكروا ما حدث إثر أحداث ١١ / ٩ والأزمة الاقتصادية عام ٢٠٠٨.

الهجمات الإرهابية ٩ / ١١: كان لهجمات ١١ / ٩ الإرهابية تأثيرات نفسية عميقة على الأمريكان، حيث عانى نصفهم تقريبا من أعراض طويلة المدى لاضطراب ما بعد الصدمة، وكانت مشاعر الخوف والغضب والتعصب السياسي والديني مشتركة بينهم. كانت هنالك ردة فعل مشتركة أخرى هي إثارة الوطنية، والحث على البقاء قريبا مع الأسرة والتواصل مع الآخرين حتى الغرباء. في ذلك الوقت كانت التكنولوجيا متجهة نحو تسهيل التفاعل المتزامن بين الناس.

إن هجمات الحادي عشر من سبتمبر سرعت بل ضخمت هذا التحول، كما زادت من شعبية بعض المواقع الاجتماعية، مثل: Friendster, Myspace وآخرها Facebook. يعزو سكوت هايفرمان مؤسس موقع Meetup تجاربه التطوعية إلى هذا الإلهام؛ كي يؤسس موقعه الاجتماعي:”لا أذكر إطلاقا أني كنت مهتما بشؤون المجتمع، لكن تلك التجربة قادتني لسؤال أساسي: ما الذي يجمع الناس معا؟ ما الذي يجعلهم يتحدثون لبعضهم البعض؟ كيف يشكل الناس مجموعة قوية تصنع أشياء جيدة؟

إن التبني الواسع للشبكات الاجتماعية غيرت قواعدنا حول كثير من الظواهر النفسية، مثل: الصداقة والكشف عن الذات والخصوصية وسلوكيات التسوق. أصبحنا نشعر بالارتياح للتواصل مع أناس غرباء حول العالم، ونشارك صور إقامتنا ومن الذين نقضي وقتنا معهم، وأين سنذهب. شبكاتنا الاجتماعية نمت، والعالم انكمش من حولنا”.

الركود الكبير: كان الركود الكبير سنة 2008 حدثا اقتصاديا بالدرجة الأولى، ولكن كانت له تداعيات نفسية واجتماعية مهمة، فلقد قادت سنوات المعاناة الاقتصادية التي تلت ذلك الركود جيل الألفية خصوصا للتساؤل عن مفاهيم التملك والحيازة، ومع انجلاء الركود و التعافي الاقتصادي فإن القلة من جيل الألفية من اختار امتلاك المنازل، حتى ملكية السيارات كانت قد تبعتها في الانخفاض، وأصبحت التعويذة: “أنفق مالا أقل على الأشياء، وأكثر على الخبرات”.

لتحرير المال للخبرات لم يصبح كثير من الناس مرتاحين للإيجار ومشاركة الشقق والسيارات وحسب، بل كذلك بمشاركة الملابس والأدوات ومساحات العمل والحيوانات الأليفة وكل شيء تقريبا. هذا الارتياح لمشاركة غير المالكين شكل مرحلة من النمو السريع من المشاركة، أو ما يسمى “الاستهلاك التعاوني”، وتزامنا مع ذلك فإن ظواهر مثل التقاعد المالي أو “تقاعد مبكرا” ساعدت على إلغاء مبدأ الاستهلاك والإنفاق. إن نتيجة ظواهر ما بعد هذا الركود كلها هو نمو شركات حصة النقل مثل Uber و Lyft، وكذلك شركات الإقراض، مثل: prosper، والشركات المساهمة، مثل: Airbnb من بين شركات أخرى، ومع شعورنا بالارتياح للاستهلاك التعاوني لمختلف المنتجات والخدمات، وجعلنا قيمة أكبر للتجارب على السلع فالعالم تقلص بشكل أكثر، جاعلا الناس أقرب فأقرب، مشكلا تواصلا ممتدا عبر العالم.

جائحة كوفيد ١٩: في هذا الوقت تشير كل الظواهر إلى تغيرات كبيرة في الاتجاه المعاكس، من العالمية للمحلية، ومن التمدد العالمي إلى الانكماش، وفي غضون شهرين فقط صنعت جائحة كوفيد ١٩ التغير الذي لا رجعة فيه، فلقد فرض التباعد الاجتماعي والحجر الصحي علينا الحدود على نمط حياتنا وجدول أعمالنا، جاعلَيْنِ منا حبيسِين جسديا ونفسيا، ومقللِين من توقعاتنا، كما أن أنماط الشراء غير المعتادة وتقليص الحدود أعاقت سلسلة التمويل العالمية المعقدة، وأدرك الناس قيمة الإنتاج المحلي، خاصة الطعام والخدمات. إن عناوين الجائحة الأبرز ستكون الاكتفاء الذاتي واليقظة ومسؤولية الفرد الاجتماعية، وهذه العمليات النفسية ستكون ذات حافز للمرحلة القادمة لتغيير واسع النطاق.

إن اتجاهات أخرى، مثل: التأثيرات المتزايدة والمرئية الناتجة من التغير المناخي، وتبني الذكاء الاصطناعي في توقع سلوك البشر، والزيادة في عدد سكان العالم كلها لديها القدرة على التأثير على التغيير الناتج بسبب جائحة كوفيد ١٩.

مع تقلص تأثير الوباء خلال السنة أو السنتين القادمتين فإن الكثير منا سيغير سلوك الشراء لديه، بدعمه لرواد الأعمال المحليين، سواء كانوا مزارعين أم أصحاب مطاعم أم أصحاب مصانع، أما أكبر الشركات التي توفر أحدث المنتجات التقنية وأحدث الأدوية أو توفر خدمة مثالية فإنها ستكون مقبولة لدى المستهلك ، لكنها لن تنال ثقته وولاءه بسهولة. إن المنتجات والعلامات التجارية الخارجية ستعامل بشيء من الحذر، وستعد بديلا ثانيا يلجأ إليها في حال عدم وجود المنتج المحلي.

ستأخذ السياحة العالمية والسفر لأجل التجارة وقتا طويلا للتعافي، وبالعكس من ذاك فإن المستهلكين سيختارون الشراء من البضائع المحلية واعتماد التجارب الوطنية، وكما نجحت شركة Uber و Airbnb بعد ركود 2008 فإن النماذج الاقتصادية المبتكرة التي ستستفيد من هذه الاتجاهات وتستغلها بشكل أمثل ستكون هي المجموعة التالية من الشركات الناشئة الرائدة.

من الواضح أن هذا التغير الواسع النطاق له تأثيرات رئيسة على صانعي السياسات تجاه مشكلات، مثل: الهجرة والرعاية الصحية والضرائب والأمن الاجتماعي والتوظيف، إذ ستكون التوجهات الوطنية في كل هذه المشاكل هي الغالبة، وحتى يحدث الاضطراب القادم ليهز الأمور من جديد فإن عالم ما بعد جائحة كوفيد ١٩ سيكون أوسع بكثير وأكثر عزلة مقارنة بالعالم الذي ألفناه.

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